Forecasting for Supply Chain Planning

Step-by-Step Tutorial: Mastering Forecasting for Supply Chain Planning

1. Introduction to the Webinar:

   • The webinar discusses how forecasting fits into the successful process for supply chain planning.
   • Acknowledge the participants for joining the webinar and express gratitude for their time and attention.

2. Introducing the Speakers:

   • Allow each speaker to introduce themselves, their expertise, and their experience in inventory optimization and demand forecasting.

3. Understanding the Importance of Forecasting:

   • Discuss the reasons why forecasting is essential, such as meeting sales targets, planning and scheduling, managing inventory, and responding to customer demand.

4. Utilizing Wooclap for Engagement:

   • Encourage participants to engage with the presentation using Wooclap for interactive questions and feedback.

5. Exploring Forecasting Methodologies:

   • Discuss the historical context of forecasting methodologies and the importance of decision-making with uncertainty.
   • Emphasize the need for clear decision-making supported by accurate forecasting data.

6. Implementing Moving Averages for Forecasting:

   • Consider using moving averages for forecasting, with recommendations for the number of periods to use based on the presence of seasonality and trends.

7. Analyzing Forecast Errors:

   • Measure forecast accuracy by analyzing forecast errors, both in absolute terms and as a percentage of demand.
   • Avoid computing percentage errors period by period to prevent distortions in the data.

8. Addressing Inventory Shortages in Forecasting:

   • Discuss strategies for incorporating inventory availability at the time of sale into forecasts to adjust predictions accordingly.

9. Enhancing Forecasting with Probabilistic Models:

   • Evaluate the use of probabilistic forecasts and advanced inventory optimization tools to leverage the power of forecasting data effectively.

10. Choosing Forecasting Models:

    • Consider the complexity of data available and the specific forecasting needs before selecting between simpler statistical models and advanced machine learning models.

11. Next Steps and Continuous Learning:

    • Encourage participants to focus on improving demand forecasting processes, automating forecasting models, and investing in training to enhance forecasting capabilities.

12. Future Webinar Topics:

    • Preview upcoming webinars focusing on practical demonstrations and mechanics behind improving forecasting techniques.

13. Conclusion and Gratitude:

    • Conclude the webinar with thanks to the participants for their engagement and interest in mastering forecasting for supply chain planning.
    • Provide information on accessing the webinar recording, slides, and additional resources for further learning.

By following these steps, participants can gain valuable insights into the intricacies of forecasting for supply chain planning and enhance their decision-making processes based on accurate and reliable forecasts.