NFL DFS Strategy: RB Metrics for Success on DraftKings & FanDuel

Introduction

This tutorial provides a step-by-step guide on NFL Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) strategy, focusing specifically on the metrics for success for running backs (RBs) when playing on DraftKings and FanDuel. Understanding these metrics will help you make informed decisions and increase your chances of winning in daily fantasy football.

Step 1: Understand Key RB Metrics

To effectively evaluate running backs, familiarize yourself with the following key metrics:

• Yards Per Carry (YPC): Measures the average yards gained per rush attempt. Look for RBs with a high YPC as they tend to be more effective.
• Targets Per Game (TPG): Indicates how often a running back is targeted in the passing game. Higher targets can lead to more opportunities for points.
• Snap Count: The percentage of offensive snaps a running back is on the field. Higher snap counts often correlate with increased fantasy production.
• Red Zone Opportunities: Tracks how often a running back gets a chance to score within the red zone. More opportunities can lead to touchdowns and additional points.

Practical Tip

Use tools like DFSHub to aggregate these metrics for easy comparison across players.

Step 2: Analyze Matchups

Evaluate the matchups for running backs against opposing defenses. Key considerations include:

• Defensive Rankings: Assess the opposing defense's ranking against the run. Target RBs facing defenses that struggle to stop the run.
• Home vs. Away Performance: Some players perform better at home. Check if the RB is playing at home or away and how it affects their performance.

Common Pitfall

Avoid overvaluing a running back based solely on past performance against a specific team. Always consider current season metrics and defensive changes.

Step 3: Monitor Injury Reports

Stay updated on injury reports, as they can significantly impact a running back's performance.

• Starting RB Injuries: If the starting RB is injured, the backup may see increased usage. Monitor these situations closely for potential value plays.
• Offensive Line Health: Injuries to the offensive line can affect a running back's effectiveness. Check the health status of key blockers.

Step 4: Utilize Ownership Projections

Understanding player ownership projections can help you strategize your lineup.

• Leverage Ownership: Target lower-owned players with high upside to differentiate your lineup, especially in larger tournaments.
• Balanced Lineup: Consider a mix of high-owned and low-owned players to balance risk and reward.

Step 5: Review Recent Performance Trends

Analyze the recent performance of running backs to identify trends.

• Last Few Games: Look at the last 3-5 games of performance. Consistency can be more valuable than a single big game.
• Matchup Context: Understand the context of previous matchups (e.g., were they playing against a weak defense?).

Conclusion

By understanding and applying these key metrics, analyzing matchups, monitoring injuries, utilizing ownership projections, and reviewing recent performance trends, you can significantly enhance your NFL DFS strategy for running backs. Always keep an eye on tools like DFSHub for aggregated metrics and insights to support your decision-making. Happy playing, and may your lineups thrive!