Toward a Second Cuban Missile Crisis? - Theodore Postol, Alexander Mercouris & Glenn Diesen

Introduction

This tutorial explores the implications of the recent U.S. missile deployment to Germany, drawing parallels to historical nuclear tensions such as the Cuban Missile Crisis. It aims to provide insights into the potential consequences of this escalation and how it may affect global security. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for anyone interested in international relations, military strategy, or arms control.

Step 1: Understand the Missile Deployment

• The U.S. plans to deploy missiles to Germany by 2026, capable of reaching Moscow in approximately two to three minutes.
• This setup raises concerns about nuclear stability in Europe, as it presents a first-strike threat to Russia.
• Historical context: The U.S. withdrawal from the ABM Treaty and the INF Treaty has paved the way for this missile deployment, marking a significant shift in military strategy.

Step 2: Analyze the Risks of Escalation

• The current situation is compared to the Cuban Missile Crisis, with a critical difference: the deployment of missiles in Europe creates a scenario where de-escalation is more challenging.
• The presence of these missiles could lead to heightened tensions, as Russia may feel pressured to adopt a more aggressive military posture.
• The short warning time (two to three minutes) complicates Russia's ability to respond effectively, potentially leading to hasty decisions.

Step 3: Explore Technical Aspects of Missile Detection

• Understand the types of missile trajectories:
  • Ballistic Trajectories: Traditional missile path, which can be detected by radar before impact.
  • Hypersonic Glide Vehicles: These travel near the speed of ballistic missiles but follow flatter trajectories, allowing less time for detection.
• The radar systems in place may only detect these hypersonic threats moments before they reach their targets, increasing the risk of miscalculation or accidental conflict.

Step 4: Consider Russia's Possible Responses

• Russia may decentralize its command structure to mitigate the threat posed by U.S. missiles, potentially increasing the number of individuals with launch authority.
• This could lead to a faster decision-making process in a crisis, raising the potential for inadvertent escalation to nuclear conflict.

Step 5: Engage with the Broader Implications

• Reflect on the implications of these developments for global security. The potential for a new arms race or miscalculations heightens the risk of conflict.
• Consider how public sentiment in Europe, particularly among the youth, is shifting regarding military deployments and their implications for peace.

Conclusion

The deployment of U.S. missiles to Germany represents a significant escalation in military tensions and poses serious risks for nuclear stability in Europe. Understanding the technical aspects, risks, and potential responses from Russia is crucial for grasping the broader implications for international security. Engaging in discussions about arms control and fostering public awareness can pave the way for more informed decision-making and potentially avert a crisis similar to the Cuban Missile Crisis.