Aula de VALUATION na prática - Passo a Passo Completo!

Introduction

This tutorial provides a comprehensive guide on how to conduct a valuation, a crucial method used by analysts and investment professionals to determine the fair price of stocks. Understanding valuation can significantly enhance your investment decisions and is essential for those preparing for certification exams in finance, such as the CNPI.

Step 1: Understand Valuation Concepts

• Familiarize yourself with key valuation terms:
  • Intrinsic Value: The actual worth of a company based on fundamentals, as opposed to its current market price.
  • Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): A method used to estimate the value of an investment based on its expected future cash flows, adjusted for time value of money.
  • Comparable Company Analysis: Evaluating a company's value by comparing it to similar firms in the industry.

Step 2: Gather Necessary Financial Data

• Collect the following data from the company's financial statements:
  • Income Statement
  • Balance Sheet
  • Cash Flow Statement
• Ensure that the data is up-to-date to reflect the company's current financial situation.

Step 3: Calculate Free Cash Flow

• Use the formula for Free Cash Flow (FCF):

  FCF = Operating Cash Flow - Capital Expenditures
  

• This figure is crucial for the DCF analysis as it represents the cash generated that can be distributed to investors.

Step 4: Determine the Discount Rate

• Use the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) as the discount rate.
• WACC can be calculated using the formula:

  WACC = (E/V) * Re + (D/V) * Rd * (1 - Tc)
  

  • E = market value of equity
  • D = market value of debt
  • V = E + D (total value)
  • Re = cost of equity
  • Rd = cost of debt
  • Tc = corporate tax rate

Step 5: Project Future Cash Flows

• Estimate the company's cash flows for the next 5-10 years based on historical data and growth expectations.
• Be realistic in your projections to avoid overestimating the company's potential.

Step 6: Calculate Terminal Value

• After projecting cash flows, calculate the terminal value to account for all cash flows beyond the projection period.
• Use the Gordon Growth Model:

  Terminal Value = (FCF * (1 + g)) / (r - g)
  

  • g = perpetual growth rate
  • r = discount rate

Step 7: Discount Cash Flows to Present Value

• Discount the projected cash flows and terminal value back to present value using the WACC.
• Use the formula:

  PV = Cash Flow / (1 + r)^n
  

  • n = year number

Step 8: Sum Up Present Values

• Add all the discounted cash flows together, including the discounted terminal value.
• This total will give you the estimated intrinsic value of the company.

Step 9: Analyze and Compare

• Compare the intrinsic value calculated to the current market price of the stock.
• Determine if the stock is undervalued (buy opportunity) or overvalued (sell opportunity).

Conclusion

Valuation is a critical skill for investors and finance professionals. By following these steps, you can effectively assess a company's worth and make informed investment decisions. Consider practicing this method on various companies to enhance your skills further. For those pursuing certification, solidifying your understanding of these concepts will be vital for your success.