Materi Analisis Sensitivitas

Introduction

This tutorial provides a step-by-step guide on conducting a sensitivity analysis, crucial for assessing the viability of a project under varying assumptions. Sensitivity analysis evaluates how changes in input variables can affect project outcomes, helping stakeholders make informed decisions.

Step 1: Understand the Project Assumptions

• Identify the key assumptions made at the beginning of the project. These may include:
  • Estimated costs
  • Expected revenues
  • Market conditions
• Document these assumptions clearly, as they will serve as the baseline for your analysis.

Step 2: Define Key Variables

• Determine which variables will be analyzed for sensitivity. Common variables include:
  • Cost of materials
  • Labor costs
  • Sales volume
• Focus on variables that have the most significant impact on project outcomes.

Step 3: Develop the Sensitivity Analysis Model

• Create a financial model that incorporates your project assumptions. This model should allow for easy manipulation of key variables.
• Use spreadsheet software (like Excel) to structure your model. Essential components to include:
  • Input cells for all key variables
  • Formulas to calculate total costs, revenues, and net profit

Example Formula

To calculate net profit:

Net Profit = Total Revenue - Total Costs

Step 4: Perform Sensitivity Testing

• Adjust each key variable one at a time to observe the changes in project outcomes.
• Record how variations in each variable affect the overall results.

Practical Tips

• Consider adjusting variables by a fixed percentage (e.g., +/- 10%) to see how sensitive the outcome is to changes.
• Use data tables in your spreadsheet to automate this process for multiple variables.

Step 5: Analyze the Results

• Summarize the findings from your sensitivity analysis:
  • Identify which variables have the greatest impact on project viability.
  • Highlight any critical thresholds where the project becomes unfeasible.
• Use visual aids like charts or graphs to present your findings clearly.

Step 6: Make Informed Decisions

• Based on the sensitivity analysis, evaluate:
  • Whether the project remains viable under various scenarios.
  • Potential adjustments needed to mitigate risks associated with uncertain variables.
• Discuss findings with stakeholders to refine project strategies.

Conclusion

Conducting a sensitivity analysis is essential for understanding how changes in assumptions can impact project outcomes. By following these steps, you can create a robust analysis that aids in risk management and decision-making. The next steps involve applying these insights to optimize project plans and prepare for potential uncertainties.