I Tried Positive Expected Value (+EV) Betting For A Month...

Introduction

This tutorial outlines the Positive Expected Value (+EV) betting strategy as tested over a month. By following these steps, you can learn how to implement this strategy effectively in your own sports betting endeavors. The aim is to maximize your returns while managing your bankroll wisely.

Step 1: Understand Positive Expected Value

• Definition: Positive Expected Value (+EV) betting focuses on identifying bets that have a higher probability of winning than the odds suggest. This means you are betting on outcomes where the expected return is positive.
• Calculation: To determine if a bet is +EV, use the formula:
  • Expected Value (EV) = (Probability of Winning x Amount Won) - (Probability of Losing x Amount Lost)
• Example: If a bet has a 60% chance of winning with odds of +150:
  • Probability of Winning = 0.6
  • Amount Won = $150
  • Probability of Losing = 0.4
  • Amount Lost = $100
  • EV = (0.6 * 150) - (0.4 * 100) = $90 - $40 = $50 (This is +EV)

Step 2: Set Up Your Bankroll

• Initial Bankroll: Start with a reasonable amount that you can afford to lose. This could be anywhere from $500 to $1,000, depending on your financial situation.
• Bankroll Management: Allocate a specific percentage of your bankroll for each bet. A common recommendation is to bet 1-5% of your bankroll on any single bet.
• Tracking Performance: Keep a detailed record of all your bets, including the amount wagered, odds, and outcomes. This helps in analyzing your performance over time.

Step 3: Find +EV Bets

• Research Tools: Utilize sports betting research tools like OddsJam and Outlier to identify potential +EV bets.
• Market Comparison: Compare odds across different sportsbooks to find discrepancies that indicate +EV opportunities.
• Data Analysis: Look for statistical data and trends that support your bet. This could include team performance, player injuries, and historical matchups.

Step 4: Place Your Bets

• Choosing a Sportsbook: Sign up with reputable sportsbooks that offer competitive odds. Consider using multiple sportsbooks to take advantage of the best odds available.
• Betting Strategy: When placing bets, stick to your bankroll management strategy. Avoid chasing losses by increasing your bet size recklessly.

Step 5: Review and Adjust

• Monthly Review: At the end of the month, review your betting performance. Analyze which bets were successful and which were not.
• Adjust Strategy: Based on your review, adjust your betting strategy as needed. This might involve changing the types of bets you place or refining your research methods.

Conclusion

By following these steps, you can implement the Positive Expected Value betting strategy effectively. Key takeaways include understanding +EV, maintaining disciplined bankroll management, and continuously analyzing your betting performance. Consider starting your journey with the tools mentioned to enhance your betting experience. Happy betting!