Ekonomi Teknik Pertemuan 13 dan 14 - Sensitivity Analysis dan BOK (Teknik Sipil, UNIVET BANTARA)

Introduction

This tutorial focuses on conducting sensitivity analysis and understanding the concept of BOK (Biaya Operasional Kendaraan) within the context of civil engineering economics. It is aimed at students studying civil engineering and provides a structured approach to analyzing project costs effectively.

Step 1: Understand Sensitivity Analysis

Sensitivity analysis is a technique used to determine how different values of an independent variable will impact a particular dependent variable under a given set of assumptions.

Key Points:

• Purpose: It helps in assessing the risk associated with various uncertainties in a project.
• Application: Useful in budget planning, forecasting and decision-making processes.

Practical Advice:

• Gather data about the variables relevant to your project.
• Use software tools (like Excel) for calculations to visualize how changes in inputs affect outcomes.

Step 2: Identify Key Variables

Identify which variables in your project will have the most significant impact on your analysis.

Common Variables to Consider:

• Project costs (fixed and variable costs)
• Revenue projections
• Timeframes for project completion
• Economic factors (inflation rates, interest rates)

Practical Tips:

• Use historical data to estimate the range of possible values for each variable.
• Discuss with stakeholders to ensure all relevant factors are considered.

Step 3: Conduct the Sensitivity Analysis

Perform the actual analysis by adjusting the key variables identified in the previous step.

Steps to Follow:

1. Select a base case scenario for your project.
2. Adjust one variable at a time to observe the effects on project outcomes.
3. Record the results for each adjustment.

Example:

• If you are analyzing project costs, increase the material cost by 10% and note the impact on the overall budget.

Step 4: Analyze Results

After conducting the sensitivity analysis, it's crucial to interpret the results to make informed decisions.

Considerations:

• Determine which variables had the most significant impact on your project.
• Assess whether the project remains viable under different scenarios.

Common Pitfalls:

• Avoid focusing solely on the worst-case scenario; consider best and moderate scenarios as well.
• Ensure that all assumptions used in the analysis are clearly documented.

Step 5: Understanding BOK (Biaya Operasional Kendaraan)

BOK refers to the operational costs related to vehicles in a project, crucial for budgeting and financial planning.

Key Components:

• Fuel costs
• Maintenance expenses
• Driver salaries
• Depreciation of vehicles

Practical Steps:

• Collect data on each component of BOK.
• Integrate BOK into your overall project cost analysis for a more accurate financial picture.

Conclusion

Sensitivity analysis and understanding BOK are essential skills for civil engineering students. By following the steps outlined, you can better prepare for project challenges, make informed financial decisions, and enhance your analytical skills. Next, consider applying these techniques to real-life projects or case studies within your coursework to solidify your understanding.